Monthly Economic Survey, October 2014, INE

Page created: Wednesday, 19 November 2014 11:00GMT | Updated: Wednesday, 19 November 2014 11:56GMT

Report:  19 November 2014 - 3 Page(s)
Tags:
Consumption  GFCF  Inflation  Investment  Short-term Indicators

In the Euro Area (EA), GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of 0.8% in the second and third quarter (1.0% in the first quarter). In October, the consumer confidence and the economic sentiment indicators for the EA diminished. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of -1.1% and -8.3%, respectively (-4.2% and -1.4% in September).

In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, GDP recorded a volume year-on-year growth rate of 1.0% in the third quarter, after registering a change rate of 0.9% in the second quarter.

Comparing with the previous quarter, the GDP change rate was 0.2% in the third quarter (0.3% in second quarter). The economic climate indicator, already available for October, stabilized for the second consecutive month in the highest value since July 2008. The economic activity indicator slightly increased in September, while the Short Term Statistics revealed negative indications in industry, construction and public works and some sectors of services. The private consumption indicator presented a more intense year-on-year growth rate in September, reflecting the increase of the positive contribution of both components, mainly the non-durable consumption component. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator diminished, due to the higher negative contribution of the construction component and the lower positive contribution of the transport material component. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports recorded year on year nominal change rates of 1.5% and 2.5% in September (2.6% and 3.7% in the previous month), respectively. Without considering three months moving average, nominal exports and imports of goods shifted from -2.2% and -2.3% change rates in August to 3.7% and 5.6% in September, respectively. This behaviour might be partially explained by the fact that August and September 2014, had one less working day and one more working day than the same months of the previous year.

In the third quarter, the unemployment rate was 13.1% (13.9% in the previous quarter). Employment recorded a year-on-year change rate of 2.1% (2.0% in the second quarter). Comparing with the same quarter of the previous year, the active population diminished 0.7% (-0.9% in the previous quarter).

The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.0% in October (-0.4% in August and September). In the last month, the goods component registered a -0.7% change rate (-1.1% in September) and the services component 1.0% (more 0.3 percentage points than in the previous month). The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HCPI) was 0.3 percentage points lower than the EA HICP in October, as in September.



Original title:  Economic climate indicator stabilizes in October. Private consumption accelerates and Investment decelerates in September - October 2014