Portugal: Active population to shrink to 3.8m by 2080 in INE central scenario

Page created: Thursday, 30 March 2017 9:06 GMT

Population  Population Estimates

Lisbon, Mar. 29 (Lusa) – Portugal’s resident population of working age currently totals just under 6.7 million and is set to decrease to 3.8 million by 2080, according to the central scenario in projections released on Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).


In the report, the INE lays out four scenarios: low, central, high and without migration, based on the various alternative hypotheses in terms of the components that affect demographic developments.


On the central scenario, the active population (that is, aged between 15 and 64) would shrink to 3.8 million by 2080, having fallen to 5.9 million in 2032, under 5 million 2047, and around 4 million in 2074.


On the high scenario, the active population would be around 5 million in 2080; on the low scenario 2.8 million.


According to the INE projections, the reduction of the active population applies to all the country’s regions, except for the Algarve in the high scenario.


One major factor is an accentuated ageing of Portugal’s population. The number of people over 64 per 100 people of working age is, in the central scenario, set to more than double to 317, from 147 now.


The ageing process should stabilise somewhat around 2060, according to the same scenario.


But in the low scenario the number of over-64s per 100 people of working age could soar to 459 per 100.


The projections take as their baseline the provisional estimate of the resident population on 31 December 2015.