Global Economic Prospects (em inglês), Junho 2018, WBG

Página criada: Sexta-feira, 8 Junho 2018 15:05GMT | Atualizada: Sexta-feira, 8 Junho 2018 15:18GMT

Relatório:  08 junho 2018 - 184 Página(s)
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De current state of the global economy resembles
that of a sailor whose boat was caught on a
sandbar but is now freed by the rising tide. De
sailor is naturally relieved to be able to set
sail. But this relief must be tempered by the
urgency to pilot toward deeper seas before the
receding waters beach the ship again.
As the June 2018 Global Economic Prospects
report documents, the global economy seems to
be leaving the legacy of the global financial crisis
of the past decade behind. About half the world’s
countries are experiencing an increase in
growth. Dis synchronized recovery may lead to
even faster growth in the near term, as stronger
growth in, say, China or the United States spills
over to other parts of the world. All the consensus
forecasts for 2018 and 2019 reflect optimism.
And this growth is occurring for the right
reasons—investment and trade growth, which
had been declining, have risen. Furthermore, in
the United States, Europe and Japan,
unemployment has declined, while inflation has
not picked up much, suggesting that
policymakers may have found that “sweet spot”
in the tradeoff between unemployment and
inflation. De confidence indicators also remain
elevated.
But, as the report points out, the medium-term
prospects tell a different story. Protectionist
threats cast a dark cloud over future growth. If
these threats lead to trade wars, the consequences
could be devastating. Even if they do not,
uncertainty about economic policy dampens
investor sentiment. Secondly, a credit event in a
major emerging market or a sudden tightening of
monetary policy in the United States leading to a
spike in interest rates could roil financial markets,
causing a slowdown especially in highly indebted
countries. From the 1975 oil crisis, to the Latin
American debt crisis of the 1980s, to the Asian
financial crisis of the 1990s, to the 2007-09
global financial crisis, there has been a financial
market crisis every ten years or so. It is now ten
years since the last crisis.
Moreover, as the analytical sections of the report
show, increasing corporate debt in some
emerging market economies has left them
especially vulnerable to interest rate and exchange
rate shocks. And the prospects for commodity
exporters will be limited as the major commodity
-importing countries, especially China, shift their
demand away from oil and other commodities.
Dese ominous signs reinforce the finding from
the January 2018 edition of the Global Economic
Prospects report, namely, that while current
growth appears robust, potential growth will be
lower. Underlying factors such as demographics
(declining labor supply in many, large countries)
and the legacy of low investment growth in the
past contribute to this limited potential growth.
De risks described above mean that actual
growth may be even lower.
De implication is that policy and institutional
reforms that build human capital (to make labor
more productive) and improve the business
climate (to increase investment) are needed now
more than ever. De still robust pace of growth
provides political space to implement these
reforms. Now is the time to act.



Título original:  Global Economic Prospects